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FTW! Week Five

FTW! is the BHGP weekly guide to Big Ten watching and wagering.

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Michigan at Michigan State (BTN, 11:00)

Why Watch?  It's arguably the most compelling conference game of the week.  Just look at the subplots: Rich Rodriguez, off the worst season in the history of the program in which he handed Little Brother its first win since 2001 (and first in Ann Arbor since 1990), tries to restore the order.  Mark Dantonio continues his obsession with beating Big Blue.  Michigan attempting to prove it belongs with the other undefeateds.  Michigan State attempting to pull out of the John L. Smith-era tailspin that we all thought was past it.  Tate Forcier and his non-injured injured shoulder.  The MSU quarterback shuffle.  It's got it all.

Why Pass?  It's on while Iowa is playing Arkansas State, so you might need to miss the first part.  Also, it's inexplicably relegated to the BTN with Wayne Larrivee and the guy from Coldplay.  Certainly enough to hit the mute button, but not nearly enough to miss the game completely.

Who Ya Got?  MSU -3.5, O/U 54.  There is oh so much value here in Michigan, especially now that a field goal isn't a push.  There has been inexplicable huge movement toward Michigan State, which normally calls for the Contrarian view, but this hasn't been a year for the Contrarian view.  I think the movement is for the Forcier injury, even though he isn't even listed as questionable in the injury report.  Take Michigan and the points, and expect the best.  As for the over/under, I'm still staying with UM over until proven otherwise, but watch the weather here; forecast is for rain throughout the day, which would help Michigan but likely harm the over.

Wisconsin at Minnesota (11:00, ESPN)

Why Watch?  Aside from maybe Michigan, no undefeated team has more question marks than Wisconsin.  They have looked mediocre (Fresno State).  They have looked spectacular (Michigan State).  They finally have a legitimate quarterback, and their offense looks a little scary.  The defense, on the other hand, is either opportunistic or just bad.  Minnesota is still waiting for confirmation of their mediocrity; three close wins over middling opposition (don't bring me the Northwestern game as some sort of convincing victory; Minnesota was down after 3 quarters), and a loss to the now-mortal Cal Golden Bears.  We're still learning about both of these teams.  Oh, and they're playing a rivalry game for an ax in that new stadium.

Why Pass?  Again, it's on during the Iowa game.  But this one will be worth keeping an eye on, Jedi.

Who Ya Got?  Minnesota -2.5, O/U 52.5.  The underdogs this weekend make no sense to me.  As crazy as that Michigan line seems, it pales in comparison to this.  Minnesota has no discernible home field advantage, an inferior offense (Eric Decker excepted), and an average-at-best defense.  Take Wisky and the points.  The over is appetizing here, as well.

Star-divide

Northwestern at Purdue (11:00, BTN)

Why Watch?  No real reason, unless you're into masochism.  Both these teams stink and are going nowhere.  Northwestern is collapsing before our very eyes, after following the Syracuse collapse with a fourth-quarter meltdown against Minnesota.  Purdue has done the same, but against better opposition.  Someone has to lose, I guess.

Why Pass?  It's the fourth-best show on at this time, and the second-team Big Ten Network crew, featurning someone named Ari Wolfe, is on the call.  So stay away unless, again, masochism.

Who Ya Got?  Purdue -8, O/U 56.5.  I've begrudgingly taken Northwestern, if only because Purdue shouldn't be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone.  But the more I think about it, the less I like this wager.  The weather might make the under a great bet, especially with Mike Kafka behind center.


Penn State at Illinois (2:30, ABC/ESPN2)

Why Watch?  Penn State is out for blood.  Again.  Which means Darryl Clark will probably go 6-45 for 84 yards, throw three interceptions, and then text message the other sideline for some support.  He will get no response, because Juice Williams will be too busy finding a way to put up an even more pathetic performance.  If you can find a prop bet on turnovers, take the over.  Take it to the bank.

Why Pass?  There's a little thing called LSU-Georgia on CBS, which will likely be equally bad quarterback play in better weather.  Washington-Notre Dame is on, as well, with two quarterbacks who are far better.

Who Ya Got?  PSU -7, O/U 47.  Illinois has been crushed by every legitimate team it has faced.  This should be no different.  Give the points and take the road favorite, if you must (though, to be fair, I'm not nearly as high on this pick as everyone else here).

 

Ohio State at Indiana (6:00, BTN)

Why Watch?  Indiana looks a little frisky.  The EKU opener aside, IU has performed admirably in wins against Western Michigan and Akron and a near-miss at Michigan.

Why Pass?  Jim Tressel hates frisky.  Jim Tressel strangles the life out of friskiness while it sits in the cradle.  This is going to be an excruciating piece of football, and Oklahoma is playing Miami on network television at the same time.

Who Ya Got?  OSU -17.5, O/U 49.  I hate both of these lines, but Indiana might well not get on the board.  Take the under.

0 recs  |  Comment 11 comments |

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Comments

Display:

The only one of those games that I would touch...

and even then only with real thick asbestos gloves, would be PSU vs Zookheimer.

NO WAY that PSU doesn’t cover the spread on that game. The Lions are pissed, the Zooker is no less of a dotard this week than last, and the Illini are a congealing mass of blood on offense.

Don’t care if Sean Lee ain’t back, the Illini won’t break 20 on the Lions, and PSU won’t score less than 28.

The other games—toss a coin in the air and see if it comes back down again. Really, who knows which OSU team shows, or which IU team shows, or whether Wisky or Minny are for real, or whatever. I wouldn’t bet your last nickle on any of them, and i don’t even know you.

But the Lions—-yeah, that’s the one to bet.

The one to watch if you are not a gambling addict is Minny-Wisky. Should be lots of fun.

If it's not too much trouble, search your soul--and then ask yourself if maybe I might have a point.

by The Director on Oct 2, 2009 6:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

We were pissed last week

But then Illinois doesn’t have an Iowa-level d-line.

But then Temple pushed us around.

I’m conflicted.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 2, 2009 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Penn St got beat by us but they have to be 2 td's better than Illinois

even on the road.

Joe Pa is no Ron Zook.

I feel sorry for Isiah. The kid deserves better.

by HawkeyeRecon on Oct 2, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's be real here

Penn State had a 20 or something play drive on Iowa after a perfectly thrown deep ball. If either of those things show up in Champagne it could get very fucking ugly for the Zookers. They do not have anything resembling a “team” concept over there and if PSU scores a couple of early TDs the Illini could resemble an Afghan town council meeting.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Oct 3, 2009 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only a Ron Zook-coached team would look at a QB with a strong but not especially accurate arm and very good running ability and a deep threat future first rounder like Rejus Benn and have his team running a dink-and-dunk passing offense.

Listen to your old QB’s philosophy, Ron — You Gotta Unleash the Dragon.

by Yinka Double Dare on Oct 3, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even if I was a jNWU or Purdue Fan...

I wouldn’t watch that shit game. On the other hand, I’m hoping to have no reason to watch Iowa’s third string in the second half either.

Fuck tOSU

by ajs1122 on Oct 2, 2009 7:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No reason?

I don’t believe either team has a defense. I think the only thing that will stop either of them is the weather. It could be like watching a Big 12 game last year. Only in rain. And less fans.

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Oct 2, 2009 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I doubt it

if Ro-tel is to be believed

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Oct 3, 2009 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Three BIG TEN teams on the verge of collapse

Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue. Whoever among those teams loses this week could disintegrate into seething chaos and dysfunction. My bet is Illinois and Purdue go the way of a coup while Michigan State gets a reprieve.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Oct 3, 2009 9:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow – look at you seeing the future. Very impressive, sir.

by txhawkeye on Oct 4, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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