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The Takeaway: Illinois

Sure, Iowa just lost to the Illini, 27-24. But how much do we really know? What was really important about losing to Illinois? What does it all mean, Basil? The Takeaway has the answer.

Zook-holst_medium
The Zooker proves his point with dance and impassioned lyricism.

This game was lost in the first half. Iowa had three red zone possessions in the first half. Their total scoring for those drives, and the half as a whole, was six points. You cannot win on the road like that. Sure, you can blame Ricky Stanzi's inexperience, and that's not altogether incorrect; the Manzi was 5-14 in the first half. But too often in the red zone, he wasn't put in position to succeed, especially on third down. His throws were both short of the first down marker and low-percentage; where did the roll-out game go? Why sit in the pocket and throw five-digs on 3rd and 8 when the receiver's in double coverage?

Stanzifumble-holst_medium
Worst. Statue of Liberty. Ever.

Granted, Stanzi didn't improve much in the second half. It wasn't until he coughed up the ball on the scoop-and-score (see above, vomit, rinse, repeat) that gave Illinois the 24-9 lead in the fourth quarter that Stanzi and the Iowa offense came to life. Also helpful: Illinois trotting out an obviously injured corner to abuse. Granted, it was great to see Iowa's offense come to life and finish off drives, but that cannot continue to wait until the 4th quarter--especially not against Penn State.

Star-divide

The difference between 2001 and 2008 is salary. Just like 2001, this is the first time in a few years that Iowa has enjoyed a distinct physical advantage with their opponents, but they're coming up just short. In 2001, 7-5 was awesome. It was positive. It was "we're not getting beating by Western Michigan this year!"

The problem, of course, is that Kirk Ferentz isn't paid for growing pains anymore. And when you get a situation like this where Iowa hasn't won their last 8 games decided by three points or fewer, that starts to become an indictment of the head coach.

Ferentz-holst_medium
32 Double Z Right Alpha Dig Cross Catastrophic Fumble, on two. Let's do it!

It's no exaggeration to say that Ferentz's job security depends on these last three games. Iowa is 5-4 right now, having lost those four games by a combined 12 points and winning those five by a metric fuckton. Iowa has no business winning the PSU game or losing to Purdue, so let's say we're 6-5 going into the last week at the Humpty Dump. One more 6-6 season with Christmas at home and we imagine Bloodpunch Barta's going to start wondering aloud to the press if it's not time for a change.

There's no point in missing the point. There are some notable details from last weekend's game; this time, it was a dinged-up ankle for Greene, a rare missed field goal for Mossbrucker (2nd all year), and an even rarer wide open long TD pass (1st all year, below). Whatever.

Longtd_medium

They're still details to a larger point: Going back as long as the seniors have been suiting up, the Iowa program has real, fatal trouble in close games. Coming into a game against a PSU team that's superior in both discipline and physical talent, that spells automatic loss this weekend. Don't let the 7.5-point line fool you--while Iowa's certainly capable of making the game competitive for all four quarters, there is very, very little to suggest they can come away from the game with an upset win.

For stars like Brodell, Greene, and King to suffer through this kind of a season is a travesty. Let's hope they can at least get to a bowl and win it to send the guys out on a high note. Step 1 is not giving up against Penn State.

 

(Photo credits: First three: Matthew Holst/Press-Citizen; Dwyer's TD, Herald & Review/Stephen Haas)

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I’m not with you on Ferentz needing the last 3 games for job security. We should be patient for another year seeing as this year was such a big improvement from last. Who knows, maybe we’ll win 4 games decided by 12 total points next year.

O’Keefe on the other hand… My opinion of him doesn’t change when we win.

Fuck State! I mean Penn State!

by Duez I say on Nov 6, 2008 7:48 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I with duez as far as KF goes. I’ve said this to many students in the student section call for his head. If we get rid of KF I just can’t see us getting anyone better. I would love to see O’Keefe go however. Despite however much the Big Ten network praises him. I think with a new assistant calling the shots we would see a much more effective offense.

As far as last week’s game goes I agree with OPS strongly on one point, the rollout game was completely gone. If we got into obvious passing downs on 2nd or 3rd and longs the DEs would just tee up and fly straight at Stanzi. You can’t take 6 or more sacks and expect a win.

by Argulor on Nov 6, 2008 10:54 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I said job security, not job

I don’t think Ferentz gets fired unless Iowa drops the last three games by wide margins. What I mean is the money starts drying up, Barta stops being polite in the press, and feelers start going out for new coaches, such that Iowa will have a plan in place should Ferentz start next season 2-4 or something.

AKA Shadow

by Oops Pow Surprise on Nov 6, 2008 1:18 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FWIW

penn state fans are sad there is not more JOE PA action this week

by gbd106 on Nov 6, 2008 9:44 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, yes, I know

Between the “excuse to drink on a Tuesday” (spelled E-L-E-C-T-I-O-N) and a very inopportune service outage last night (from 5 minutes after I posted this to 11:30), this has been a very unlucky week for content. We’re finishing strong, though.

AKA Shadow

by Oops Pow Surprise on Nov 6, 2008 1:20 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

my prediction

psu 6
iowa 4

and yes, gimme some hot MR. PATERNO action. and pleeze let it involve our president-elect.

http://glassesofjoe.blogspot.com/

by psudrozz on Nov 6, 2008 9:55 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don’t know what to think about Ferentz…..

One one hand the team seems to be better than last year, on the other hand the players can’t stay out of trouble.

I still live in Iowa City and on occasion still head downtown after a football game….I have yet to NOT see an Iowa football player at whatever bar I am at. Do the football players not realize that the ICPD have quota’s now as far as how many citations they are supposed to write? A drunk 5’9 160lbs guy or a 6’4 250lbs guy, who do you think the ICPD is going to gravitate towards more often than not?

by J.R. Angle has a posse on Nov 6, 2008 10:05 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"to suffer through this kind of a season is a travesty"

Weren’t we saying this last year?
Look, we can suggest KOK should go as much as we want, it’s not going to happen unless Barta gives him a “either him or both of you” ultimatum, and I just don’t believe that will happen. I understand calling for patience, but mine has just about run out. Do I see anyone better? No, but I’m not looking. I’m questioning how much this teams trusts the coaching staff right now, and that is death to a team.
I hope Saturday is competitive.

by chitownhawkeye on Nov 6, 2008 11:54 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let's go ahead

And presume I’m retarded and that nobody gives a flying fuck about my opinion. It saves OPS from reminding me of that fact later.

But I agree that KOK needs to go, and it’s unlikely Barta ever gives KF that ultimatum. That being said, I see the team trusting in KF and working hard for him. In a certain way, what he preaches does work. If we execute better than the other team, we usually win. Look at this year: every loss the team has, we’ve simply not executed. 5 TO’s against NW, another handful against MSU, Illinois, and Pitt. If those TO’s are removed, Iowa likely wins each and is undefeated right now. The games the offense has executed near-perfectly, Iowa has won handily.

So while yeah, the coaching staff could make some adjustments, and yeah, I don’t love the record right now, I’m not sold that the entire staff is the problem. If some new blood comes in, and gives the offense a few wrinkles (ditto for the defense), I’m inclined to believe the execution theory can win Iowa 9-10 games again.

by imadirtyoldman on Nov 6, 2008 1:14 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The point I was making in your referenced argument

Is that coaches do not care what fans think of them at all. They have so many more important things to worry about.

That said, while KOK isn’t very good, it’s tough to lay a ton of blame at his feet for the entire season. His two QBs are a shell-shocked, undersized lefty who’s in the middle of overhauling his mechanics, and an inexperienced, reckless righty with a penchant for crippling turnovers. Yeah, Stanzi’s improving, but he makes some really bone-headed decisions sometimes.

And yes, it would be nice to see a little more aggression in play calls on both sides of the ball. Ferentz is afraid of the backfire, though, so even if the assistants depart, you’re probably getting more of the same in a replacement.

AKA Shadow

by Oops Pow Surprise on Nov 6, 2008 1:25 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Barta Ultimatum

I’m pretty sure KF’s answer to the ultimatum it’s either KOK or both of you. Is bye-bye.

He’s got an associate head coach/OL coach job or a straight head coach job in the NFL anytime he wants it. Say what you will about his loyalty being misguided but he is incredibly loyal.

by Internet Legend on Nov 6, 2008 1:58 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and because of that loyalty

You don’t see Bob Sanders saying things about him that Rashard Mendenhall said about Ron Zook.

by Internet Legend on Nov 6, 2008 2:04 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But

You are assuming loyalty and intelligence are the same thing. Zook is an idiot which, as we all know, always warrants talking behind that person’s back, regardless of loyalty.

by Duez I say on Nov 6, 2008 3:27 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jones'd at the hip

KOK launched KF’s career; KF won’t terminate KOKs.

Barta is nowhere near to issuing Ferentz an ultimatum. He can’t afford to risk rebuilding football and basketball simultaneously. He’s never hired at this level, other than Lickliter, and that stock hasn’t proven itself yet.

We’ve beaten one team with a winning record this year — and they’re FCS.

We play everyone we lose to very tough. I don’t think other teams look forward to playing us, because they sense we’re close to putting together the perfect game (60 minutes of what we did to Texas for 28).

What we’re really losing are the 5-6-7 plays that determine close games. If you reconsider 2004, we won those plays and won the games. We’re oh-fer in our last nine 3-point games. One has to decide if that is bad luck or coaching. Nine is a long string of bad luck.

Barta, on the other hand, has to look at it like an accountant. 7-5 keeps the money flowing. Hire the wrong coach, you could go 2-10. I don’t see anything changing.

I think we can beat PSU. That game arrives at the same point, emotionally, as Illinois last year. Stranger things …

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Nov 6, 2008 3:54 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have a dream

That we will play PSU tough. Darryl Clark gets another concussion (courtesy of King) and becomes a sideline cancer (again). Devlin poops out two fumbles (King and Kroul!). Our offense sputters as usual and Greene rushes a gillion times for 57 yards BUT, Brodell gets two long bombs for touchdowns on play action fakes. Stanzi’s numbers are 2-2 with 2 touchdowns. We win 20 – 17.

Go Hawks or KOK marriage proposals!

by Duez I say on Nov 6, 2008 4:14 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Your on drugs

if you have dreams that unrealistic. As much as I want it to happen, we will not beat PSU. If you’ve seen them play, you know we don’t have a chance. I believe that KF is a brilliant coach, but needs to start producing. I realize that he is the head of a young and unpredictible team, but I would like to see more consistency on a year-to-year basis. Also, I’d just like to say that this site kicks ass. I’ve been looking for a good hawkeye site for years. Unfortunately, I’m going to ISU next year but I will always be a hawk fan at heart.

by Kreebs on Nov 6, 2008 8:20 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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