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Around SBN: Jerry Sandusky's Wife Tries To Run A Reporter Over

Brewster steps up, blames someone else.

Brewster's O-line coach Phil Meyer  "resigned to pursue other opportunities" yesterday.  Meaning? It's not the head coach's fault they ran for 7 yards and were "physically outplayed."   This is the moral equivalent of Mason dumping two of her senior staff before her Regents woodshed meeting.  If Brewster had a blog, it would start today, "I'm briliiant and manly, and Meyer isn't."   What a guy.

(You know you've had an okay day when somebody you just played ... gets fired.)

Chris Brown suggests that the spread has already reached its apogee and if so, it will be interesting to see if RichRod can yet pull it off.  Man, I wish we could have played Michigan and OSU this year.  Is Meyer's firing a smart move or just a leading indicator that the spread is on its downward arc?

I think it may be.  If there's any lesson here its that football is still won at the line of scrimmage.  The spread clearly is an equalizer against undisciplined defenses that over-pursue, or just lack athleticism (code for: we're just not good enough), and the spread is right on if the QB can run like a back *and* throw.  (Is Pryor the next Tebow or the next Juice?  Not clear.)  But it's still a game where if you can control the LOS with four down linemen you have the numerical advantage even with a running QB.  There's something incompatible with that truism and the idea that you need smaller, shiftier O-lineman that can move sideline-to-sideline -- and 4-5 superior skill position guys.

So: what are the requirements for a team to win with the spread?

1.  An O-line that is physical enough to force defenses to come with 5 or 6, overcommitting the D to the center of the field, and shifting the numerical advantage dramatically to the offense.  Oh, but they also have to run like linebackers.

2.  A QB who throws as well as Stanzi but runs as well as DJK.

3.  4-5 shifty very fast guys who can get separation on the edge.

It's easier to come up with Iowa's offensive player mix, I think, because our schemes are so simple.  Really, we're just saying on every play: we will beat you senseless --  unless you blitz and cheat up with your safeties.  When you do that, though, we will go over the top and get 30.  But then if you back up, we will say Thanks! and beat you senseless some more.  Obviously, our QB has to be able to go over the top with accuracy under pressure, and now he can.  Obviously, our game doesn't work if our O-line isn't nasty.  But we don't need all-world receivers or even RBs to make this work.  We just need a guy at QB who can recognize which part of the field is being left under-defended, and get the ball there.  It's worth noting that both Banks and Tate lasted about one workout in their NFL trials.  Iowa's system requires a QB with touch and recognition more than the more rare physical skills.  Iowa's offense is about efficiency and reducing volatility (not fucking up).  We were only upper-middle in all offensive statistics categories, but second in the league in scoring O.

(I also think one of the most under-reported features of this club vs. the last four is our receivers stopped dropping the ball 4-6 times a game.  That was like getting 4-6 illegal procedure calls a game.  Campbell seems to have made a huge difference.  When Stanzi gets the ball in the air you don't cringe anymore, waiting for it to bounce off somebody in a bad place, like the hands or numbers.)

Anyway, they've got the freight train running again, the ballclub is having fun on the field again for the first time in years, and I can't imagine there's a team (because we lost 4x, because we're unranked) that any 10-2 club in the bowls would like less to play.  And the Gopher linemen are prepping for Detroit knowing that they're being blamed for the baggie collapsing on them Saturday.

FOOTNOTE STAT TO PONDER: we had the league's most disruptive D-lineman, by acclamation.  And finished last in the league in sacks.  On both sides of the ball, the ethic is to control the LOS, and let the guys in back do their work.

 

 

 

Unless otherwise expressly indicated by BHGP editors, this FanPost is strictly the viewpoint of the author and is not endorsed by BHGP in any way.

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You have a link to the Chris Brown article?

That’s one of my pet projects for the offseason.

Oops Pow Surprise: "I'm stuck writing at the Titty Barn."

by Patrick Vint on Nov 25, 2008 6:19 AM CST reply actions  

Here you go

It’s mainly about the ground game.

I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks

by Adam Jacobi on Nov 25, 2008 6:33 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm not clicking that

Oops Pow Surprise: "I'm stuck writing at the Titty Barn."

by Patrick Vint on Nov 25, 2008 7:39 AM CST up reply actions  

Brown breaks it down.

From 2006!

“..it has morphed from an equalizing offense, one used by less talented programs to level the playing field, to one that merely amplifies the latent talent, so talented teams can expose mismatched defenders but there are now fewer opportunities for less talented teams and the spread may not be well situated for these "up-and-coming” programs now that it is so popular."

http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2006/01/has-spread-offense-reached-its-apex.html

Related, in a different article talking about QB progressions:

“You do not win football games and complete passes by creating "one-on-one matchups” unless you have superior talent at each position. You win them by getting a numerical advantage, where it is 5 on 4, or 2 on 1."

http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2005/09/organizing-pass-plays-as-concepts.html

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Nov 25, 2008 7:01 AM CST up reply actions  

more from Chris Brown

“Yet the belief in absolute determinism is natural: we intuitively want results to be indicative of objective truths, and it is much less complex to analyze easy to observe statistics and outcomes than it is to try to estimate the underlying probabilities…So, if we want real answers, we have to admit that there’s lots of luck around.”

http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2008/11/football-luck-and-noise.html

and Brown clarified his definition of “luck” early in his post (an assumption that he and I share, and which KOK detratactors almost always ignore or do not share):

“…many readers do not share a rather fundamental assumption I hold about football: an incredible amount of the game is determined by "luck.” Now, when I say luck, I do not mean fluke events, or the ol’ bounce a da ball, or things like that. What I mean is that almost any and every outcome in football is not set in stone, but rather, there is some probability that the outcome will be X, another probability that the outcome will be Y, and maybe even a chance that it will be Z."

It sure is simple to say “If we had only done this, then that would have happened,” but surely the final drive of the PSU game—when contrasted with other fruitless drives—shakes us out of that slumber.

looking for someone smarter than KOK...

by not so fast, my friend on Nov 26, 2008 8:12 AM CST up reply actions  

luck v. probability

Brown talks about luck and probability interchangeably, because he’s comfortable using the language of quantitative finance. In reality, if KOK has an annoying habit (well, he does, and more than one, but …) it’s to transfer value to the other side through predictability. He raises the odds for the other guys, at the expense of our own.

When he doesn’t do that? We beat PSU, and beat MN half to death.

So we need to recognize that when Brown says “luck” he’s just saying that there is no determinism at work, everything is a probability.

Fry drove Schembechler crazy because Schembechler knew he could show up for a game and Fry would do nothing that maps to prior tape. In analytical terms, Fry’s in-game model could not be fit to historical data.

There are two KOK’s to study: the one who will run his constraint plays at any time in any game (PSU, MN), and the one who game-planned Western Michigan and game-managed NW this year. The former is the one Pete Carroll praised very highly in 2002.

I thought the most interesting call in the PSU game was the 15 yard out to DJK in the final drive, making the field goal attempt a chippie. I almost fell off my stool. When the guy is willing to break tendency, we play at a different level.

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Nov 27, 2008 5:14 AM CST up reply actions  

You guys will remember better than I — has KF ever done this with one of his assistants? Also, I’m wondering what impact Eric Campbell had as the season progressed. Receivers doesn’t seem to be the most skilled position on this team — but they improved as the season progressed and Campbell seemed to be pretty visible on the sidelines. It seems like he made a difference (huh — a new coach having some impact).

by txhawkeye on Nov 25, 2008 9:29 AM CST reply actions  

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