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The BHGP BCS Fix That Will Never Happen

Before continuing, I should acknowledge that, as Chas from Pitt Blather reminded me, the bowl and BCS situation is controlled entirely outside the realm of the NCAA. Essentially, we are calling on a monopoly to regulate itself more effectively. In other words, this entire house is built on a foundation of tinder and oily rags, and we would thank you kindly not to set it ablaze by way of Bic lighter, matchstick, or staring at it for more than 5 seconds. Thank you.

I, like most college football fans, would greatly prefer a playoff. But I understand that won't be happening in the next, say, five years (if ever). So we're stuck with the BCS and its series of high-end "BCS" Bowls and BCS teams, and all things considered, it's better than the alternative.

But at the same time, of the 8-10 teams that comprise a BCS lineup every year, it is invariably true that the worst two teams are not the at-large teams, but weak champions of BCS conferences. Meanwhile, teams like 2005 Utah and 2006 Boise State have to run the table just for a sniff at the BCS. 2008 Ball State will probably go undefeated, then end up in Detroit (actually, we probably can't do much for Ball State in this proposal). All these teams will have won their conferences handily and earned substantially better BCS ratings than the automatic entrants from the BCS conferences.

Thus, in order to increase the level of competition across the board in I-A and in the BCS bowls themselves, there is a very simple, undramatic, and fair change the NCAA can make. It doesn't affect the rest of the bowl affiliations, it doesn't affect any timetables or logistics, and nobody can convincingly call foul. In effect, it is a simplifier. The change is this:

Star-divide

Eliminate the "BCS" designation for conferences.

The current system sends the six BCS conference champions, in-conference replacements for the Rose Bowl if a Pac-10 &/or Big 10 team makes the title game, and 2-4 at-large teams to the BCS bowls. The new system, however would reward the top six conference champions, regardless of conference. The next four highest-rated teams, be they conference title holders or at large, would fill out the ranks. It's much fairer to the teams that earn it on a year-by-year basis and who aren't going on some sort of BCS designation-legacy system.

(Oh, and if the Big 10 or Pac-10 can't replace their Rose Bowl berth with a top-12 team--2007 Illinois, we are glaring at you--then the spot goes to a much more deserving at-large team.)

Here's what the last four years and this year would look like under the "new" and "old" systems. Tell me which would make for better football and better TV ratings:

2004 (adjusted): #1 USC, #2 Oklahoma, #3 Auburn, #4 Texas (at large), #5 California (at large), #6 Utah, #8 Virginia Tech, #9 Boise State
2004 (actual): #1 USC, #2 Oklahoma, #3 Auburn, #4 Texas (at large), #6 Utah (at large), #8 Virginia Tech, #13 Michigan, #21 Pitt

2005 (adjusted): #1 USC, #2 Texas, #3 Penn State, #4 Ohio State (at large), #5 Oregon (at large), #6 Notre Dame, #7 Georgia, #11 West Virginia
2005 (actual): #1 USC, #2 Texas, #3 Penn State, #4 Ohio State (at large), #6 Notre Dame (at large), #7 Georgia, #11 West Virginia, #22 Florida State

2006 (adjusted): #1 Ohio State, #2 Florida, #3 Michigan (at large), #4 LSU (at large), #5 USC, #6 Louisville, #7 Wisconsin (at large), #8 Boise State, #9 Auburn (at large), #10 Oklahoma
2006 (actual): #1 Ohio State, #2 Florida, #3 Michigan (replacement), #4 LSU (replacement), #5 USC, #6 Louisville (at large), #8 Boise State (at large), #10 Oklahoma, #11 Notre Dame, #14 Wake Forest

2007 (adjusted): #1 Ohio State, #2 LSU, #3 Virginia Tech, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Georgia (at large), #6 Missouri (at large), #7 USC, #8 Kansas (at large), #9 West Virginia, #10 Hawaii (at large)
2007 (actual): #1 Ohio State, #2 LSU, #3 Virginia Tech, #4 Oklahoma, #5 Georgia (replacement), #7 USC, #8 Kansas (at large), #9 West Virginia (at large), #10 Hawaii (at large), #13 Illinois (replacement)

2008 (adjusted) (for now): #1 Alabama, #2 Texas Tech, #3 Texas (at large), #4 Florida (at large), #5 Oklahoma (at large), #6 USC, #7 Utah, #8 Penn State, #9 Boise State, #10 Georgia (at large)
2008 (actual) (for now): #1 Alabama, #2 Texas Tech, #3 Texas (replacement), #4 Florida (replacement), #5 Oklahoma (at large), #6 USC, #7 Utah (at large), #8 Penn State, #16 North Carolina, #21 Pitt

The lowest actual teams from 2004-2007 are 0-4, and only Florida State in 2005 was even competitive (L 26-23 (3 OT) to PSU). This season, any sane, impartial observer would have zero confidence in Pitt or UNC to beat Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, or USC. We're talking about different levels of competition, plain and simple.

In this newer system, the elite are uniformly rewarded. There won't be any more scenarios like 2004, where #4 Cal and #5 Texas are jockeying for a single position. And yes, while that wouldn't happen in a 10-team system, you're certainly assured this year of having to watch teams like Pitt and North Carolina/Maryland/Georgia Tech/Whofuckingever back their ways into the BCS only to get asshammered by a legitimately good team. Like you don't want to give their automatic spots to Utah and Boise. Come on.

In addition to creating better football, there's also the rather enormous issue of money. I would be amazed if someone created a cogent argument as to why half of the conferences in I-A deserve automatic BCS money every year. It's entitlement. It's a caste system. It's why Duke, where football is stuck between "afterthought" and "punchline," sees more BCS money on a yearly basis than Boise does.

Again, the BCS is in place, and it is what it is. Blowing it up and going to the playoff system, while romantic, is not feasible at this time. But it is feasible to at least make a concerted effort to get the real best teams in place for the bowls, not just the ones who were lucky enough to be in the biggest-named conferences a decade ago. Short of relegation, that's the only way to begin leveling the playing field in I-A.

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My head hurts.

I’m sure you’re right, but this posting and its supporting evidence made my head hurt.

All this effort to make the BCS better just means someday there will be a playoff, and 19-year-olds will still be playing in February. Not a good thing.

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Nov 13, 2008 11:29 AM CST reply actions  

Two questions

-I’m not sure I get how you are treating ND

-Are you saying the 2/conf rule needs to go? Is there a 3/conf rule in this magical world?

by KevinHD on Nov 13, 2008 12:05 PM CST reply actions  

ND can go fuck themselves.

In all seriousness, it doesn’t seem like it would affect ND, but if they’re in the top 8, it means somebody else gets cut. Probably somebody not deserving of being there…but it doesn’t make me enjoy ND getting special treatment.

by chitownhawkeye on Nov 13, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Two answers

Their sweetheart deal is a total piece of shit and an embarrassment to college football. Treat them like any other independent and stop letting them take all the BCS money for themselves.

Yes. If they all earn their way in, then why not?

AKA Shadow

by Adam Jacobi on Nov 13, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Two responses

-I’m going to play devil’s advocate and say the two/conf rule is a good one. It prevents the media from hijacking a conference and crowding out the spots. For example, we know Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech are all good, but do we really? Who have those three teams beat this year? I’ll tell you: Arkansas, Cincinnati, TCU…that’s really it. The media thinks these schools are great, but what happens if they fall apart? A la OSU and Michigan in their 2006 bowl games? The rule doesn’t allow for as much manipulation.

-Also, I think this puts a lot more mid-majors in positions they don’t deserve. It’s really easy for Ball State and Hawaii to go undefeated, and with no losses voters and computers often put them very high in the standings. I don’t know that putting more of those teams up against the elite from the BCS conferences is really going to make the games more interesting.

There are nit picks, I still like the idea of loosening the stranglehold.

by KevinHD on Nov 13, 2008 6:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Dear God man

Stop trying to use logic!
It makes the BCS cry.

by chitownhawkeye on Nov 13, 2008 12:05 PM CST reply actions  

My head does not

I like the proposal, it makes sense, it will never happen. The problem, as always, is the powers-that-be (aka U Presidents). No way ACC, Big East, Big 10 will accept risk of BCS $ possibly shifting to WAC or MWC. We know the prez’s couldn’t care less about the players or fans. There are 34 (34!) bowls = 34 teams that can say they won their last game. Conferences won’t give up their guaranteed participation and ND needs their blow job.

by txhawkeye on Nov 13, 2008 12:07 PM CST reply actions  

here's what I don't get about a playoff system?

How are they incompatible with bowls? Why not put the top 6-8 in a 3-round tournament, let everyone else stay in their bowls, and everyone’s a winner? Hell, why not hold each playoff game in a bowl and let the sponsors rake it in just like before?

AKA Shadow

by Adam Jacobi on Nov 13, 2008 12:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Because it's too much football.

These guys need to graduate.

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Nov 13, 2008 6:12 PM CST up reply actions  

You know

I don’t disagree with that sentiment (I’m actually a bit of a bowl purist myself; screw the BCS and give me New Year’s Day drama), but if a playoff started December 20, like the bowls currently do, it could be done at the same time we are now. Extra games? For, what, six teams? OK, we played 11-game seasons for years before we added the twelfth game in 2003. Take it back and play 11. Teams in a 6-team (or 8-team) playoff would play – at most – one more game than they play now, and I guarantee the TV money would make it worthwhile.

Of course, the “student-athlete” argument went by the wayside when that twelfth game was added. Let’s not kid ourselves; these guys are practically professionals. They practice 20 hours per week – and I don’t know how they do it because I sure as hell couldn’t have when I was in school – but they also get paid tutors, big new buildings next to the law school built just for their studies, and every bit of support possible under NCAA rules (and, in Minnesota’s case, some that aren’t). They’re students, and their education should come first, but that has nothing to do with this.

Oops Pow Surprise: "I'm stuck writing at the Titty Barn."

by Patrick Vint on Nov 13, 2008 10:33 PM CST up reply actions  

On the other hand

Apples and oranges I know, so don’t kill me. Here in TX, high schools play 16 games to win a state championship (of which there’s about 10 classes of 11 man). Games start in late August, end late December, every week. Given the “support” in BCS conferences for football (and basketball), and what a lot of TX, CA and FL kids are accustomed to anyway, a 3 game playoff is feasible. College president’s just will never allow it.

by txhawkeye on Nov 13, 2008 10:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Some guys

take advantage of the scholarship, some don’t. (I think Narinsky will have his MBA completed by this spring.) All do have jobs, as you point out, enriching the sophisticated cultural life of the state generating money for advertisers, non-rev sports, providing fodder for blogs. And you’re right, it’s not a bad job. Working one’s way through college by doing landscaping doesn’t get you dates, free beers, and academic assistance. But a lot of people work while in college. They just have more control over when and how they work.

There just has to be a line drawn or in a generation there are going to be revenue generating spring ‘limited schedule’ games. It’s just been relentless, the growth in seasons and ‘player development’ obligations.

I also think that 19 year-olds should not be playing such a violent game in seasons that last as long as the NFL did when I was a kid. If we’re going to make them pros, let’s at least think about what we’re doing to them physically. The txhawkeye 16 game season (for the twenty or so who make the finals) is with kids who are not human physical wonders like Clayborn, Bulaga, Greene. I just don’t think it’s good for their health, playing 15-16 games, taking a month off, and heading into spring practice. We shouldn’t be damaging people’s longterm health for the apparent thrill of resolving whether or not the AirRaid works against Auburn.

I know I have no chance of either of my arguments carrying the day, and I sound like a bluenose.

Mr. Boh Knows ...

by Bellanca on Nov 14, 2008 4:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Sounds pretty good to me

I’ve never been a big playoff guy. I enjoy tournaments like March Madness, but I like that college football is unique, I like all the arguing and debate that goes along with the rankings, and I love that every single game counts (would Oregon State upsetting USC have been nearly as much fun if it hadn’t more or less destroyed the Trojan’s chances of getting into the title game? I don’t think so). I’d probably be okay with the four team plus-one system that gets talked about a lot, but I think anything beyond that would water down what is, far and away, the best regular season in all of sports. Plus, while playoffs are undoubtedly a lot of fun, I never really bought that they’re the only way to truly determine who the best team is, especially if they’re single elimination.

Anyway, that’s a whole other debate that, at this point, has pretty much been done to death. Like you said, there are a lot of ways that the current BCS could be fixed beyond just blowing it up. I’d love to see this system in place, nothing is lamer than when a shitty team sneaks in by virtue of winning a terrible conference like Pitt a few years ago (which really made the whole Utah Cinderella story a lot less fun).

by NorseHawk on Nov 13, 2008 1:24 PM CST reply actions  

Problem with your actual for 2008

Texas Tech, Texas AND Oklahoma are not all going to make BCS bowls.

http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility
“No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections.”

Some Big XII school is going to get royally screwed this year aka #5 Oklahoma would be stuck playing in the Cotton Bowl (if season ended today).

by JamesMouton on Nov 13, 2008 2:30 PM CST reply actions  

OPS is throwing out that rule, too

as addressed in an earlier comment.

Oops Pow Surprise: "I'm stuck writing at the Titty Barn."

by Patrick Vint on Nov 13, 2008 4:03 PM CST up reply actions  

My playoff scenario

Take the BCS conference champs and they’re in the playoff (same tiebreak rules apply as they currently do for Big Ten/Pac Ten). For the other two at large spots, you have four teams: conference champs of lower tier conferences and possibly highly ranked conference runner ups (e.g, Florida or Texas this year). Those teams are chosen by a basketball style selection committee and play in a mid-December bowl game as play in teams. Four current BCS bowls are used and the other bowls still reward teams for good seasons. Only four teams are playing past Jan. 1, only two teams playing past Jan. 8 (or so). Huge TV money all around.

by CINF on Nov 13, 2008 5:03 PM CST reply actions  

Love the relegation idea, actually. It’d make the loser games important too, and it’d be nice to give teams like BYU and Boise a chance to prove they belong. (Of course, Iowa State in the Mountain West would seem a little odd, but whatever.)

by SpartanDan on Nov 13, 2008 11:38 PM CST reply actions  

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