PSA: Make your own gambling decisions and don't bet with money you don't have. Betting doesn't make poor people cool, it makes them Uncle Buck without the kids. You can lose money betting. That's the whole point.
Okay. So our first little adventure didn't quite go exactly as planned. That's okay; everyone knows first sons are just trial runs! Who cares if the casino owns them now, anyway? If anything I did you a favor.
Anyway, you're talking to the BHGP league leader in the pick'em, so listen up: there are two lines that jump out at me this weekend (It bears mentioning, of course, that gambling is a degenerate activity and these exercises are strictly for entertainment purposes only):
1) Hawaii at Fresno State (-22.0). This is not Colt Brennan's Hawaii. Like, at all. Their only win was a slugfest with mighty Weber State. They got blown out at Florida (understandable) and at Oregon State (a little more understandable after last week but still WTF mate) and couldn't even win at home against San Jose State, who is stealing I-A membership on a yearly basis.
Hawaii is starting something called "Inoke Funaki" at QB, whose best accomplishment in both his previous starts has been being benched for Tyler Graunke. Graunke's injured, however, so Hawaii's going with the tried-and-true strategy of "backup QB starting because we have no choice." That spells disaster, especially against a Fresno squad who's been tuning up against real competition all year. This game is a welcome deep breath for the Bulldogs; they've either been on the road or facing a Top 10 team all season. Meanwhile, Hawaii's barely even Top 10 in the WAC.
Sure, -22.0 is big, especially because Fresno coasting to, say, a 38-17 win is A) their biggest win of the year and B) less money for you. But Hawaii is on the road with a first-year coach, a lousy quarterback, and a resume that wouldn't get you hired at Burger King. Take Pat Hill gleefully. BONUS!!!: The game's not until late Saturday; you can spend all day marveling at the mastery of my picks before you commit money to the Tao Te Oops.
2) Auburn (-4.0) at Vanderbilt. Come on. I know it's technically #13 at #19 and that's supposed to be a big deal. I know. The truth of the matter is that Auburn is so much more talented than Vandy it's silly.
Yes, Auburn has been brutal on offense. Miserable. They're also facing a positively average Vandy defense; Vandy has given up 17 a game against nobody. Combine that with Auburn's scary-scary defense against a tepid run-run-run offense, and we're looking at Vandy down 14-3 in the middle of the third, throwing, and fucking up all over the place. By the time they score a TD, it'll be way too late--a deceptively close 17-10 score is my pick.
I'm taking Auburn in Yahoo, and if I were Chuck Barkley throwing money around I'd be dropping mad change on my alma mater tonight.
It's too late to change any picks in the group, but does anyone else have any locks for our readers?